Why Tottenham, Arsenal, Chelsea and Man United will — and will not — finish in the top four

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The Premier League title race between Manchester City and Liverpool is alive and well — but coming just behind them, things are equally fascinating in the battle for the top-four places.

A couple of months ago, it seemed Manchester United were huge outsiders for a Champions League place. A couple of weeks ago, it seemed Tottenham were nailed-on for one of those slots, with Chelsea and Arsenal battling it out for the final place.

But suddenly, the field has tightened up considerably. United’s run of form under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has transformed them into serious contenders again, while Tottenham have suddenly hit the wall. With just three points between Tottenham, Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United, it’s now possible to make a case for all four sides finishing in the top four…

– Premier League sprint to the finish: Title race, UCL spots, relegation

3. TOTTENHAM (64 points from 32 matches)

Why they will

The long-awaited return to White Hart Lane has provided a much-needed morale boost at a point where Tottenham were desperately struggling, after just one point from five matches. The 2-0 victory over Crystal Palace doesn’t entirely solve the question of how well the players will adjust, but supporters are considerably happier in the impressive new arena, after nearly two years spent travelling across north London to Wembley, which never felt like home.

Tottenham also have a relatively gentle run-in. There’s a trip to Manchester City, against whom Mauricio Pochettino’s side also face in a two-legged Champions League quarterfinal. But there are also simple home matches against Huddersfield, Brighton, West Ham and Everton and an away trip to Bournemouth. None of these sides are likely to be playing for anything.

Spurs’ new home well worth the wait

Why they won’t

The recent poor run of form is difficult to ignore. Spurs look weak in the centre of midfield, with Eric Dier and Victor Wanyama struggling for fitness this season, Harry Winks encountering problems in recent weeks, Mousa Dembele sold and Moussa Sissoko only capable of playing certain roles properly. There’s also an issue on the right, where Kieran Trippier has endured a poor campaign, while Hugo Lloris’ late mistake for Liverpool’s winner last weekend was the latest in a string of errors from the French goalkeeper.

There’s also the fact that Spurs will face Manchester City three times in 12 days. Matches between Pochettino and Pep Guardiola’s sides are always high-tempo, based around pressing energetically, and Spurs might be running on empty by the end of this mini-series.

And then there’s the stadium question. In truth, no one entirely knows how this will affect Spurs’ performances: traditionally teams suffer from moving to a new ground, but Spurs’ situation is complicated by the fact they’re moving from a “neutral” venue, rather than their old home. But it’s reasonable to question whether home advantage really counts for much when Spurs will have only played a couple more matches at the ground than their opponents, and while the supporters will make more noise than at Wembley, the players are hardly in familiar surroundings.

4. ARSENAL (63 points from 31 matches)

Why they will

Arsenal’s 2-0 victory over Manchester United last month represented their final fixture against one of the other “big six” clubs, and therefore their run-in seems relatively simple on paper.

They’re also the in-form side. The Gunners have collected 16 points from their last six matches — only dropping points away at Tottenham, where they should have won. Indeed, but for Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s late penalty miss, they’d be outright favourites to finish in the top four.

Unai Emery also appears to have found the right balance in his starting XI, having spent the first half of the season chopping and changing. The three-man defence looks relatively secure, aside from when Shkodran Mustafi dives into unnecessary tackles, while Ainsley Maitland-Niles has deputised well in the absence of Hector Bellerin, who was Arsenal’s most consistent performer in the opening months of the campaign.

Why they won’t

Arsenal’s major problem is their away record. In Arsene Wenger’s final campaign, they had the second-best home record in the league, but only the 11th-best away record in the division. Things haven’t changed much under Emery: they’ve won the third-most points at home, and only the 10th-most points away from home.

That final statistic is compromised by the fact they’ve played the fewest away matches (14) in the league thus far — but that, of course, is also very much the problem, as Arsenal still have lots of away matches to come.

Five of their final seven matches are on the road, and while they’re spared any trips to fellow big six clubs, they play at seventh-placed Wolves, eighth-placed Watford, ninth-placed Leicester and 10th-placed Everton, plus Burnley — down in 17th, but stylistically the type of away trip Arsenal traditionally detest, due to the threat of long balls and hard tackles.

The other issue is the Europa League: Arsenal have Napoli in the quarterfinals, and progression would add two extra matches to their schedule, albeit the other three sides are in the same situation.

Man United and Chelsea’s match on April 28th could prove decisive in determining the European futures of both clubs. Photo by Laurence Griffiths/Getty Images

5. CHELSEA (63 points from 32 matches)

Why they will

Wednesday’s 3-0 victory over Brighton could prove crucial — not merely for the three points, but because Maurizio Sarri made changes, and the newcomers played well.

Olivier Giroud still seems a better frontman for this system than Gonzalo Higuain. Sticking with Giroud, the tried-and-tested option who brings the best out of Eden Hazard, makes more sense for the rest of the campaign, especially as Higuain probably won’t be around next year.

On the right, Callum Hudson-Odoi assisted Giroud’s opener, while in midfield Ruben Loftus-Cheek grabbed a goal and an assist. Even centre-back Andreas Christensen enjoyed a good game in place of Antonio Rudiger, who struggled…

Read more at this link (News Source).

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